The revolutionnary processes in the Arab region - Christian Babel

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Outline of the lecture

The dynamics of the « Arab spring »

Introduction: - the reference of the “spring of the peoples” in 1848
- definition of “the Arab region”
- categories of revolutions: situation, revolutionary process and permanent revolution

Part 1: The degree of destabilisation of the bourgeoisie – and its counter attacks

- In the revolutions of the Arab region, the capitalism of global financialization and neocolonialism is being repudiated
- A political crystallisation with economic and ecologic roots
- Pacific massive demonstrations, with occupation of squares, without leaders, with a massive presence of youth and of women, using all techniques of modern means of communication
- Three dynamics in the process, according to the different types of regimes
- But a rapid return of imperialist pressure, based on the resistance of the regimes, the compradore bourgeoisie and the new allies with a social base: the Islamists …
- and the limits in Tunisia and in Egypt: clashes with the aspirations of the people
- The effort to maintain the status quo elsewhere: kingdoms of Bahrein, Oman, Morocco, Yemen and even Syria
- The opportunity for an imperialist counter offensive in Lybia, also with limits
+ the pressure on Iran

Part 2: The situation in Syria

- an indefensible regime from all points of view
- a popular and unifying revolution
- imposed militarisation
- myths, realities and risks of exterior intervention, in favour of or against the regime
- international solidarity

Part 3: The dynamics of the “Arab spring”, exhausted?

- A lack of an exterior “progressive” prospective, lack of experience, resistance of reactionary forces and temporally exhaustion …
- The Islamists win the elections
- “Dual power” between Islamists and the old regimes in Tunisia and in Egypt
- but the protagonists from “below” continue strongly to mobilize!
- deepening of the process in Kuwait, Sudan and Jordan, on the Palestinian territories … it continues and will endure: permanency of the revolution with ups and downs
- difficult general relationship of forces, but Palestine is an anti-imperialist bomb!
- Syria is very important
Part 4: The impact of the process for the struggles all over the world and for international solidarity

- the example of the struggle without compromise can cause the downfall of dictators despite the numerous deaths: revolution is possible; the “99%”, the “Indignad@s”, “Occupy Wall Street” etc.
- solidarity against repression by the regimes, against imperialist domination, against the debt Tunisia / Egypt, with the refugees … too weak! A profoundly weakened workers movement
- Lybia: the dictatorship, imperialism, the labour and democratic movement … then, Syria: the problems with campism
- Necessity of international solidarity to avoid the exclusive dualism imperialism – Islamism: an essential issue for the labour movement

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