China's global role: challenging the US
Ecosocialist School 2018 - IIRE - November 26 Xi Jinping, China's global role and global challenges Pierre Rousset
Introduction The "over-determining" framework of the global situation: the global ecological crisis. The "over-determining" framework of the global geopolitical situation: the global expansion of Chinese power. An uncertain future (consequences of a possible major regime crisis in China?). Geopolitics today: the confrontation between the rising power (China) and the established power (United States). If the current dynamic continues: there is a tendency towards a radical change in the world order (reconstitution of two power-blocks operating according to different political and economic logics). Already, the "China factor" has implications for all domains.
I. Xi Jinping's China Historical background: from China of Mao to the China of Deng to the China of Xi Processes: social revolution, bureaucratic counter-revolution as a precondition for bourgeois counter-revolution, political regime changes within capitalist China.
1. A new, absolutist power structure. 2. A new state ideology that is both archaic (red bloodlines) and modern (the nationalism of a great power). 3. A model of authoritarian (classic) capitalist development, based on a very specific social formation (which we know only imperfectly).
3. A new global ambition. => The Chinese century = a rather classic imperialist project thought of as a global civilizational alternative. The Achilles' heel: an impractical absolutist project? As long as there is hope for a better life... But when the crisis comes?
II. Military expansion A purely imperialism? A contradiction in terms. The change in military doctrine. The development of naval forces The development of advanced weapons Cyber security The weaknesses of the Chinese armed forces and the defensive alliance with Russia. The Pentagon's concerns and the limits of the US superpower. The Trump factor, the European Union, Japan and Australia. The situation in East Asia and the North Pacific. Global deployment is taking shape.
III. Economic expansion Two steps. All-round expansion: "the belt and the road" (OBOR). Includes everything (cultural), but the pillar is: infrastructure. Multifunctional: opportunities for sectors suffering from overproduction, strategic investments (communications), political influence (up to Latin America)... Financial institutions "in" (IMF) and "out" (AIIB) The importance of "corridors" (Pakistan, Burma, Malaysia...). Debt as a weapon of domination (concessions: Sri Lanka). Problem: profitability and political reactions (Malaysia, Africa...). => Reassessment in progress. Economic expansion remains, but what about the OBOR program?
The US counter-offensive A very serious conflict on all fronts. The war over custom duties and foreign investment in China. The currency war. The financing war ("development aid"). The technology war. Indispensable China. Debts in China?
IV Where are we going? Obama and the price of paralysis (failure to refocus on the "Asian pivot"). Trump is the price of unilateralism (the loss of confidence of the allies). The "China factor" (Interpol, WHO, biodiversity...). The climatic coup de grâce. Solidarity and the new framework for internationalist action.