Difference between revisions of "China's global role: challenging the US"

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[https://4edu.info/images/a/a0/Chine-RapportIIRF1811126-Eng.ppt Powerpoint]
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Ecosocialist School 2018 - IIRE - November 26
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Xi Jinping, China's global role and global challenges
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Pierre Rousset
  
 
Introduction
 
Introduction
  
Current developments: China's Xi Jinping
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The "over-determining" framework of the global situation: the global ecological crisis.
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The "over-determining" framework of the global geopolitical situation: the global expansion of Chinese power
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An uncertain future (consequences of a possible major regime crisis in China?).
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Geopolitics today: the confrontation between the rising power (China) and the established power (United States).
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If the current dynamic continues: there is a tendency towards a radical change in the world order (reconstitution of two power-blocks operating according to different political and economic logics).
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Already, the "China factor" has implications for all domains.
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I. Xi Jinping's China
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Historical background: from China of Mao to the China of Deng to the China of Xi
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Processes: social revolution, bureaucratic counter-revolution as a precondition for bourgeois counter-revolution, political regime changes within capitalist China.
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1. A new, absolutist power structure.
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2. A new state ideology that is both archaic (''red bloodlines'') and modern (the nationalism of a great power).
  
Fudamental issues: Chinese regime transformations from Mao to Deng and Deng to Xi
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3. A model of authoritarian (classic) capitalist development, based on a very specific social formation (which we know only imperfectly).
  
Geopolitical issues: East Asia, the international China / USA confrontation, where does world history take place?
 
  
For the general framework: see Peter's report "Imperialism, from the highest stage of capitalism to globalization"
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3. A new global ambition.
  
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=> The Chinese century = a rather classic imperialist project thought of as a global civilizational alternative.
  
I. China's Xi Jinping
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The Achilles' heel: an impractical absolutist project?
  
A significant change in the mode of governance (ie the political regime)
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As long as there is hope for a better life... But when the crisis comes?
  
Taking the initiative in East Asia:
 
  
Military: the reclamation of the South China Sea, the rivalry with Japan, the VII US Fleet and the political factor
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II. Military expansion
  
Economic: role of the Chinese market and investments
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A purely imperialism? A contradiction in terms.
  
Politics: a model of authoritarian capitalist development
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The change in military doctrine.
  
The implementation of a global ambition. Imperialist in its projects and practices. Control the ways and means of communication, the food and mineral resources ...
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The development of naval forces
  
The new silk roads
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The development of advanced weapons
  
The military deployment
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Cyber security
  
Financial strength
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The weaknesses of the Chinese armed forces and the defensive alliance with Russia.
  
A turning point in post-Mao history and its contradictions.
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The Pentagon's concerns and the limits of the US superpower.
  
When the crisis comes
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The Trump factor, the European Union, Japan and Australia.
  
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The situation in East Asia and the North Pacific.
  
II. How did China become imperialist?
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Global deployment is taking shape.
  
Apparent continuity of the CCP, reality of qualitative change in all domains.
 
  
The army or the navy?
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III. Economic expansion
  
The radicality of social change: Two upheavals of the class structure in China: after 1949, then from the 80s: Bourgeoisie, working class, peasantry, women, ideology, etc.
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Two steps.
  
The internal conditions of the birth of a new bourgeoisie:
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All-round expansion: "the belt and the road" (OBOR).
  
The CCP and the Maoist regime after 49: an internal, evolutionary contradiction.
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Includes everything (cultural), but the pillar is: infrastructure.
  
The narrowing, then the loss of the mass base of the original Maoism.
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Multifunctional: opportunities for sectors suffering from overproduction, strategic investments (communications), political influence up to Latin America)...
  
The Cultural Revolution and the completion of the bureaucratic counter-revolution.
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Financial institutions "in" (IMF) and "out" (AIIB)
  
The political conditions of the turn towards the capitalist transition.
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The importance of "corridors" (Pakistan, Burma, Malaysia...).
  
From a dominant layer (state bureaucracy in a transitional society) to a wealthy (bourgeois) class. Transmission to the heirs.
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Debt as a weapon of domination (concessions: Sri Lanka).
  
A specific form of bureaucratic capitalism: families, state enterprises and individual capital. An original social formation.
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Problem: profitability and political reactions (Malaysia, Africa...).
  
Birth of a new independent bourgeoisie.
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=> Reassessment in progress.
  
The international conditions of its expansion:
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Economic expansion remains, but what about the OBOR program?
  
Capitalist globalization and the freedom of capital movement.
 
  
The end of the exclusive control of a territory (in subordinate alliance with the elites) by an imperialism.
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The US counter-offensive
  
The optimism of capital "in globalization" after the implosion of the USSR.
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A very serious conflict on all fronts.
  
Subordination? The question asked in China in the early 2000s.
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The war over custom duties and foreign investment in China.
  
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The currency war.
  
III. Asian and world geopolitics
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The financing war ("development aid").
  
The Korean crisis and its regional implications
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The technology war.
  
A specific issue: access to the Pacific Ocean for China, international navigation in the China Sea.
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Indispensable China.
  
The initiative has changed sides.
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Debts in China?
  
A general issue: the geopolitical place of East Asia for all the major powers.
 
  
Obama and the bankruptcy of the retrenchment (the "Asian pivot"). Trump and the credibility of the US commitment to its allies.
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IV Where are we going?
  
Expansionism as a response to the risk of internal crisis - until when?
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Obama and the price of paralysis (failure to refocus on the "Asian pivot").
  
The new Great Leap Forward - how far? Technological innovations, modernization of the armed forces and test of fire  ...
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Trump is the price of unilateralism (the loss of confidence of the allies).
  
Xi Jinping's regime as a crisis factor. When will the crisis come?
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The "China factor" (Interpol, WHO, biodiversity...).
  
Structuring global geopolitics: from conflict within a relationship of interdependence to interdependence within a geopolitical conflict.
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The climatic coup de grâce.
  
Rising power (China) and established power (USA).
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Solidarity and the new framework for internationalist action.
  
Au Loong-yu, Pierre Rousset - The 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party – Modernisation by a pre-modern bureaucracy? 2017 [http://www.europe-solidaire.org/spip.php?article42297]
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[http://www.europe-solidaire.org/spip.php?article46591 Pierre Rousset: Chinese geopolitics: continuities, inflections, uncertainties] (2018)
  
Au Loong-yu - China: End of a Model…Or the Birth of a New One? 2009 [http://www.europe-solidaire.org/spip.php?article14573]
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[http://www.europe-solidaire.org/spip.php?article46516 Pierre Rousset: The inter-Korean summit and the situation in North-East Asia] (2018)
  
Pierre Rousset: From whence did the new Chinese capitalism emerge? “Bourgeoisification” of the bureaucracy and globalization 2014 [http://www.europe-solidaire.org/spip.php?article32325]
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[http://www.europe-solidaire.org/spip.php?article42297 Au Loong-Yu: The 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party – Modernisation by a pre-modern bureaucracy?] (2017)

Latest revision as of 10:37, 25 November 2018

Powerpoint

Ecosocialist School 2018 - IIRE - November 26 Xi Jinping, China's global role and global challenges Pierre Rousset

Introduction

The "over-determining" framework of the global situation: the global ecological crisis.

The "over-determining" framework of the global geopolitical situation: the global expansion of Chinese power

An uncertain future (consequences of a possible major regime crisis in China?).

Geopolitics today: the confrontation between the rising power (China) and the established power (United States).

If the current dynamic continues: there is a tendency towards a radical change in the world order (reconstitution of two power-blocks operating according to different political and economic logics).

Already, the "China factor" has implications for all domains.


I. Xi Jinping's China

Historical background: from China of Mao to the China of Deng to the China of Xi

Processes: social revolution, bureaucratic counter-revolution as a precondition for bourgeois counter-revolution, political regime changes within capitalist China.


1. A new, absolutist power structure.

2. A new state ideology that is both archaic (red bloodlines) and modern (the nationalism of a great power).

3. A model of authoritarian (classic) capitalist development, based on a very specific social formation (which we know only imperfectly).


3. A new global ambition.

=> The Chinese century = a rather classic imperialist project thought of as a global civilizational alternative.

The Achilles' heel: an impractical absolutist project?

As long as there is hope for a better life... But when the crisis comes?


II. Military expansion

A purely imperialism? A contradiction in terms.

The change in military doctrine.

The development of naval forces

The development of advanced weapons

Cyber security

The weaknesses of the Chinese armed forces and the defensive alliance with Russia.

The Pentagon's concerns and the limits of the US superpower.

The Trump factor, the European Union, Japan and Australia.

The situation in East Asia and the North Pacific.

Global deployment is taking shape.


III. Economic expansion

Two steps.

All-round expansion: "the belt and the road" (OBOR).

Includes everything (cultural), but the pillar is: infrastructure.

Multifunctional: opportunities for sectors suffering from overproduction, strategic investments (communications), political influence up to Latin America)...

Financial institutions "in" (IMF) and "out" (AIIB)

The importance of "corridors" (Pakistan, Burma, Malaysia...).

Debt as a weapon of domination (concessions: Sri Lanka).

Problem: profitability and political reactions (Malaysia, Africa...).

=> Reassessment in progress.

Economic expansion remains, but what about the OBOR program?


The US counter-offensive

A very serious conflict on all fronts.

The war over custom duties and foreign investment in China.

The currency war.

The financing war ("development aid").

The technology war.

Indispensable China.

Debts in China?


IV Where are we going?

Obama and the price of paralysis (failure to refocus on the "Asian pivot").

Trump is the price of unilateralism (the loss of confidence of the allies).

The "China factor" (Interpol, WHO, biodiversity...).

The climatic coup de grâce.

Solidarity and the new framework for internationalist action.

Pierre Rousset: Chinese geopolitics: continuities, inflections, uncertainties (2018)

Pierre Rousset: The inter-Korean summit and the situation in North-East Asia (2018)

Au Loong-Yu: The 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party – Modernisation by a pre-modern bureaucracy? (2017)