Difference between revisions of "14/12 The Arab revolutions: Alain Baron"

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=Outline of lecture=
=Outline=
==2. The revolutionary crises in Tunisia and in Egypt==
*2.1. Global context of crisis of capitalism financial, economic and ecological crisis.
*2.2. Crisis of the dominant oligarchies in power in Tunisia and in Egypt:<br> “those from above can not rule anymore like before”<br>
*2.3. “Those from below don’t want to be rules like before anymore”:<br> revolt of the youth, mobilisations by the workers and the “intermediary layers”<br>
*2.4. The major phases since January-February in both countries (rather long part)<br>
*2.5. An unstable situation, globally the relationship of forces is maintained,<br> the process started at the beginning of 2011 is not closed<br>
*2.6. A chaotic dynamic of extension to the whole of the region<br>


==3. The limits of these processes==
==1.Introduction==
*3.1. Weakness of self organisation
1.1.Double break in 2011 with previous dominant discourse:
*3.2. Absence of revolutionary mass party : a small and fragmented radical left
a)a break with the vision linked to colonial tradition : “peoples of the Arab
*3.3. A difficult link between youth and organisations of adults
region  dedicated to authoritarianism and obscurantism
*3.4. In Tunisia, a difficult link between the people of the most developed cities and the poor regions of the interior of the country
b)refusal on a massive scale of the neoliberal model
*3.5. Le weight of decades of dictatorship
1.2.A slow rise of resistances who accelerated suddenly
*3.6. Mass islamist parties
1.3.The process is still going despite current difficulties
*3.7. The essential parts of the previous State apparatus is kept in place
*3.8. Capacity of the dominant classes and of imperialism to regain the initiative:
*'''Tunisia''':
**the High Council is installed, they use for their own agenda <br>the popular demand for a constituent Assembly
**attacks against women’s rights
*'''Egypt''': 
**referendum in February
**legislation against the right to strike
**attacks against freedom of speech
**elections in November


==4. What Prospects?==
==2.The major phases of the revolutionary processes in Tunisia and in Egypt==
*4.1. A break with capitalism and imperialism: on what conditions<br>( declaration of the Fourth International, interview Hamma Hammami …)<br>
2.1.Tunisia
*4.2. Towards a “democratisation at the level of the Maghreb-Machrek region”? (Gus)<br>
a)The fall of Ben Ali
*4.3. Towards the stabilisation of religious and conservative regimes? <br>(the “Turkish model”)?<br>
b)The attempts to regain control face popular mobilisations (a bit more thanone month)
*4.4. Towards totalitarian religious regimes?<br>
c)The new government answers to certain demands and regains the initiative (8 months)
d)The impact of the elections of the 23rd of October
2.2.Egypt
a)The fall of Mubarak (18 days)
b)The military take power
c)The reactionary forces take the initiative
d)…but the resistance organises itself
e)The confrontations in November
f)Victory of the Islamists at the November elections


==5. Build international solidarity==
==3.Key elements in the revolutionary crises in Tunisia and in Egypt==
*Campaign against the debt
3.1.Fundamental reasons
*Support for mobilisations of workers, trade-unions, <br>defence of women’s rights,<br> mobilisations of the youth and for freedom<br>
a) The context of the global capitalist crisis
*Help with the building of a revolutionary vanguard<br>
b) A crisis of the rule by oligarchies in power : “ Those from above …”
c) “Does from below don’t want to be governed as before”
3.2.The masses take to the front stage
a)Youth is at the front, role of unemployed with higher education diploma’s
b) Mobilisations of the workers: Tunisia, Egypt
c) Mobilisation of “intermediary layers”
d) The role of violence
e) Elements of self organisation
f) The question of elections
3.3.Unstable situations in Tunisia as well as in Egypt
3.4.The dynamics of a chaotic extension to the whole of the region
 
==4.The limits of these processes==
4.1.The burden of  decades of dictatorship
4.2.The mass Islamist parties
4.3.The discontinuity between revolutionary periods
4.4.The gap between level of mobilisations and of consciousness
4.5.A radical left weak in numbers and fragmented
4.6.Limited self organisation
4.7.The difficulty of linking between youth and the adult organisations
4.8.The difficulty of links between cities and between the poor regions (Tunisia)
4.9.The old state apparatus remains fundamentally intact
4.10.The capacity of the ruling classes and of imperialism to regain the initiative
 
==5.What strategic perspectives?==
5.1.Which program for breaking with capitalism and with imperialism?
5.2.Towards  “a democratisation at the level of the region Maghreb and Mashreq
5.3.Towards a stabilisation of conservative religious regimes?
5.4.Towards totalitarian religious regimes?
 
==6.Tactical questions==
6.1.The necessity of  an emergency plan
6.2.Confronting institutionalisation
6.3.The electoral question
 
==7.The party==
7.1.Continuity and discontinuity
7.2.A small weak radical left
7.3.Unity of the revolutionaries
7.4.United Front
7.5.The question of alliances
a) Alliances with the Arab nationalists?
b) Alliances with the Islamists?
7.6.Building the party and building mass organisations
7.7.The periphery and the centre
 
==8.Develop international solidarity==
Campaign against the debt
Act against the manoeuvres of the imperialist countries
Support the mobilisations : workers struggles, trade-union links, defence of women’s rights, mobilisations of the youth and for freedoms
Help, without paternalism to the building of a revolutionary vanguard.
 
=Reading materials=
 
* Ahlem Belhadj, [http://www.internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article2082&var_recherche=Ahlem%20Belhadj  A government in continuity… but capable of retaking the initiative]
* Joel Beinin,[http://www.europe-solidaire.org/spip.php?article20214  « On the Egyptian Labor Crisis : A Historical Perspective on the Popular Uprising in Egypt »] (7 février 2011)

Latest revision as of 17:57, 13 December 2011

Outline

1.Introduction

1.1.Double break in 2011 with previous dominant discourse: a)a break with the vision linked to colonial tradition : “peoples of the Arab region dedicated to authoritarianism and obscurantism b)refusal on a massive scale of the neoliberal model 1.2.A slow rise of resistances who accelerated suddenly 1.3.The process is still going despite current difficulties

2.The major phases of the revolutionary processes in Tunisia and in Egypt

2.1.Tunisia a)The fall of Ben Ali b)The attempts to regain control face popular mobilisations (a bit more thanone month) c)The new government answers to certain demands and regains the initiative (8 months) d)The impact of the elections of the 23rd of October 2.2.Egypt a)The fall of Mubarak (18 days) b)The military take power c)The reactionary forces take the initiative d)…but the resistance organises itself e)The confrontations in November f)Victory of the Islamists at the November elections

3.Key elements in the revolutionary crises in Tunisia and in Egypt

3.1.Fundamental reasons a) The context of the global capitalist crisis b) A crisis of the rule by oligarchies in power : “ Those from above …” c) “Does from below don’t want to be governed as before” 3.2.The masses take to the front stage a)Youth is at the front, role of unemployed with higher education diploma’s b) Mobilisations of the workers: Tunisia, Egypt c) Mobilisation of “intermediary layers” d) The role of violence e) Elements of self organisation f) The question of elections 3.3.Unstable situations in Tunisia as well as in Egypt 3.4.The dynamics of a chaotic extension to the whole of the region

4.The limits of these processes

4.1.The burden of decades of dictatorship 4.2.The mass Islamist parties 4.3.The discontinuity between revolutionary periods 4.4.The gap between level of mobilisations and of consciousness 4.5.A radical left weak in numbers and fragmented 4.6.Limited self organisation 4.7.The difficulty of linking between youth and the adult organisations 4.8.The difficulty of links between cities and between the poor regions (Tunisia) 4.9.The old state apparatus remains fundamentally intact 4.10.The capacity of the ruling classes and of imperialism to regain the initiative

5.What strategic perspectives?

5.1.Which program for breaking with capitalism and with imperialism? 5.2.Towards “a democratisation at the level of the region Maghreb and Mashreq 5.3.Towards a stabilisation of conservative religious regimes? 5.4.Towards totalitarian religious regimes?

6.Tactical questions

6.1.The necessity of an emergency plan 6.2.Confronting institutionalisation 6.3.The electoral question

7.The party

7.1.Continuity and discontinuity 7.2.A small weak radical left 7.3.Unity of the revolutionaries 7.4.United Front 7.5.The question of alliances a) Alliances with the Arab nationalists? b) Alliances with the Islamists? 7.6.Building the party and building mass organisations 7.7.The periphery and the centre

8.Develop international solidarity

Campaign against the debt Act against the manoeuvres of the imperialist countries Support the mobilisations : workers struggles, trade-union links, defence of women’s rights, mobilisations of the youth and for freedoms Help, without paternalism to the building of a revolutionary vanguard.

Reading materials